Sutter Power

In the last six Hall of Fame elections the most dynamic pair of relievers of the late-70's through the mid-80's have slowly climbed their way up towards the magical 75% threshhold for enshrinement. Bruce Sutter, popularizer of the split-fingered fastball, was on the ballot for the first time in 1993. From that year up through the 1998 election Sutter grabbed between 23.90% and 31.08% of the votes.

Then in 1999 Goose Gossage joined Sutter on the ballot with a 33.27% showing in the voting. Gossage's presence seemed to push Sutter up above the 30% mark to 38.48%. Since then Sutter has made very steady progress every single year on his climb to enshrinement. He moved from 38.48% to 47.57% to 50.42% to 53.63% to 59.49% and to 66.70% in 2005. Gossage has also moved up but not as well as Sutter has. From 33.27% Gossage then moved to 44.27% and then regressed for three straight years back down to 40.74% until rebounding nicely in 2005 with a 55.20 % showing.

Classic Goose

Both Gossage and Sutter are making consistent headway in the voting and I expect both to be elected by the end of the decade. Sutter has a very real chance for enshrinement in 2006. While Gossage will probably also be enshrined I think that he deserves to get in before Sutter. I don't quite understand why Sutter has always gotten more interest from the voters in the elections. My impression has always been that Gossage was the better reliever during his overall career and peak seasons.

In terms of overall career Gossage had much greater longevity than Sutter. Over a twenty-two year career Gossage threw 1,809 innings. His lifetime ERA+ was 126.

Sutter With His Third and Final Team

Sutter's career was cut short by arm problems and the last good season he had was at the age of thirty-one. Over the span of a twelve year career Sutter threw 1,042 innings to the tune of a 136 ERA+.

While Sutter didn't have the Goose's longevity he did pitch quality innings at a rate 8% better than Goose as measured by ERA+. How about some other statistical measures?

Throughout their careers Sutter and Gossage both allowed hits per inning at nearly the same rate -- .84 hits per inning pitched for Sutter and .83 for Gossage. Sutter walked fewer batters (.30) per inning than did Gossage (.40). Both men struck out the same number of batters per inning with a .83 rate. In the home runs allowed department Sutter allowed slightly more with .07 as compared with Gossage's .06 per inning. So the per inning rate stats and ERA+ career stats give Sutter a slight edge over Gossage.

But what if we look at their top ten seasons in a row during their careers? Their peak seasons of performance. For Sutter his peak was practically his entire career since he was done by age thrity-one. His peak years were from 1976 through 1984. For Gossage his peak years began during his sixth season in the major leagues. The year was 1977 and Gossage had been a starter the previous season and a below average one at that. Gossage's peak ran from 1977 with the New York Yankees through his 1985 season in a Padre uniform.

This is where Gossage separates himself from Sutter in my opinion. First, Gossage's ERA+ during this period was an impressive 197. Sutter's was also impressive -- a 172. But a full 13% less impressive than Gossage's mark. That's a bigger ERA+ difference than their career difference of 8% in which Sutter leads.

Sutter beats Gossage in walks per inning over their peak seasons with a .29 rate as compared to Gossage's .34 rate. They also are close in home runs per inning with .06 rates. It's in hits per inning and strikeouts per inning where Gossage separates himself a little from Sutter. Gossage allowed .71 hits per inning to Sutter's .81 and struck out .95 batters per inning as compared to Sutter's .85. So by these measurements Gossage had a more impressive peak period of his career than Sutter. In fact Gossage's peak career greatness exceeds Sutter more than Sutter's overall career greatness exceeds Gossage.

Add in the fact that Gossage threw 42% more career innings than Sutter and that he was still pitching above the league average if you consolidate the last eight years of his career when he ranged in age from thirty-four to forty-two.

These results did surprise me a bit. Before running the numbers I'd thought Gossage to be even more superior than Sutter. If anything this study has brought Sutter and Gossage closer together in my mind and I have more respect for Sutter's Hall of Fame candidacy then ever before.

Still it's Gossage's slightly better rate statistics as well as his much longer career than would have me give my vote to Gossage before Sutter.